The Goucher College Poll asked Maryland likely voters for their candidate preferences in the upcoming United States presidential race. Voters were also asked to rate each major party’s presidential and vice presidential candidate and whether they planned to cast their ballots in person or by mail. The Goucher College Poll was conducted from September 30 to October 4, 2020, and surveyed 1,002 Maryland adults of which 776 were identified as likely voters. The sample of 776 likely voters has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percent.

Presidential Race in Maryland

If the election for United States president were held today, 61 percent of Maryland likely voters say they would vote for Democratic candidate Joe Biden and 30 percent for Republican candidate Donald Trump. Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins and Libertarian Jo Jorgensen earn 2 percent of the vote each. Five percent either don’t know or refused to say which candidate they support.

Likely voters were also asked how they viewed the two major party presidential and vice presidential candidates. Reflecting the heavily Democratic lean of the state, Democrats Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are viewed far more favorably than Republicans Donald Trump and Mike Pence.

  • 61 percent view Kamala Harris favorably, 35 percent view her unfavorably
  • 60 percent view Joe Biden favorably, 39 percent view him unfavorably
  • 35 percent view Mike Pence favorably, 63 percent view him unfavorably
  • 32 percent view Donald Trump favorably, 67 percent view him unfavorably

When asked about how the incumbent Donald Trump is handling his job as president, 32 percent of likely voters approve and 67 percent disapprove.

Ballot Style Preference

Maryland likely voters are evenly divided on the method they will use to cast their ballot this November. Reflecting national trends, there is a significant divide in the method of voting along party lines.

  • 51 percent say they will vote in-person either during early voting or on Election Day.
    • Among Democratic likely voters: 39 percent
    • Among Republican likely voters: 72 percent
  • 48 percent say they will vote by mail by either mailing the ballot in or using a ballot drop box.
    • Among Democratic likely voters: 59 percent
    • Among Republican likely voters: 28 percent

“Given the political demographics of the state, it’s never been a question of whether the Biden-Harris ticket would carry Maryland, but rather by how much,” said Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center. “If this gap in voter preferences widens just slightly on Election Day, it would result in the largest margin of victory in Maryland for a presidential candidate since President Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater in 1964.”

Download the complete results, including methodology and question design. To view archived polls, please visit www.goucher.edu/poll.

The second part of this poll will be released on Monday, October 12, at 12:01 a.m.

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Scott E

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