Goucher College Poll: Sanders, Biden, Bloomberg leading Maryland Democratic primary; all Democratic candidates beat President Donald Trump in head-to-head matchups; Trump remains unpopular

The Goucher College Poll asked Maryland Democratic likely voters about their presidential primary, how they viewed each Democratic presidential candidate, and their preferences toward candidate ideology and electability versus closeness of position on issues. The poll also asked all Maryland likely voters their preferences in general election matchups between President Donald Trump and each of the Democratic candidates. From February 13-19, 2020, the Goucher College Poll surveyed 929 Maryland adults to identify 718 Maryland likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-3.6 percent, and 371 (+/-5.1) likely Democratic voters.

Twenty-four percent of Maryland Democratic likely voters say they will vote for Bernie Sanders, 18 percent for Joe Biden, and 16 percent for Michael Bloomberg. Seven percent would vote for Pete Buttigieg, 6 percent for Amy Klobuchar, and 6 percent for Elizabeth Warren. All other candidates earn support from fewer than 1 percent of voters. Eighteen percent have no preference or are undecided.

“There’s been significant change in the preferences of Maryland Democratic likely voters since the September 2019 Goucher College Poll. Reflecting national polls, Sanders has gained ground while both Biden and Warren have lost support in Maryland. After a late entry to the race, Michael Bloomberg has built some support among Maryland Democrats,” said Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center at Goucher College. “We’ll have a better picture after Super Tuesday, but it’s certainly possible that the Maryland primary will be hotly contested rather than inconsequential to the outcome of the primary.”

Download the complete results, including methodology and question design. To view archived polls, please visit www.goucher.edu/poll.

Democratic Candidate Favorability Ratings

Maryland Democratic likely voters were asked whether they held a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each of the Democratic candidates:

  • 74 percent held a favorable view toward Bernie Sanders; 23 percent held an unfavorable view.
  • 67 percent held a favorable view toward Elizabeth Warren; 22 percent held an unfavorable view.
  • 64 percent held a favorable view toward Joe Biden; 32 percent held an unfavorable view.
  • 61 percent held a favorable view toward Pete Buttigieg; 25 percent held an unfavorable view.
  • 54 percent held a favorable view toward Michael Bloomberg; 34 percent held an unfavorable view.
  • 53 percent held a favorable view toward Amy Klobuchar; 21 percent held an unfavorable view.
  • 31 percent held a favorable view toward Tom Steyer; 36 percent held an unfavorable view.
  • 22 percent held a favorable view toward Tulsi Gabbard; 48 percent held an unfavorable view.

Policy Closeness vs. Electability

Forty-seven percent of Democratic likely voters say it’s more important to find a candidate who is likely to defeat Trump, and 39 percent say finding a candidate whose positions on the issues comes closest to theirs is more important.

General Election Matchups

All Maryland likely voters were asked who they would vote for if the election were between Trump and each one of the Democratic candidates:

  • 61 percent Bernie Sanders/34 percent Donald Trump
  • 60 percent Joe Biden/35 percent Donald Trump
  • 59 percent Michael Bloomberg/32 percent Donald Trump
  • 59 percent Amy Klobuchar/32 percent Donald Trump
  • 59 percent Elizabeth Warren/35 percent Donald Trump
  • 58 percent Pete Buttigieg/33 percent Donald Trump
  • 54 percent Tom Steyer/36 percent Donald Trump
  • 52 percent Tulsi Gabbard/35 percent Donald Trump

Trump and Congress

Thirty-one percent of Marylanders approve of the job Trump is doing as President of the United States and 62 percent disapprove. Thirteen percent of residents approve of the job Congress is doing and 79 percent disapprove.

About the Goucher College Poll

The Goucher College Poll is conducted under the auspices of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center at Goucher College. The center is directed by Dr. Mileah Kromer, associate professor of political science.

The Goucher College Poll is fully funded by the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center endowment and does not take additional funding from outside sources. The mission of the Goucher College Poll is to improve public discourse in Maryland by providing neutral, unbiased, and independent information on citizen perceptions and opinions. The data collected by the poll are used to support faculty and student research.

The Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center is a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organizations and the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative.

For more information, or to view archived polls, please visit www.goucher.edu/poll.

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I seriously did not see these numbers coming out of Maryland.

Warren supporters (especially those in HoCoMD) have to be a little bummed by these numbers. I really thought she would be higher than this shows based on how people have been talking about who they support. All I got tonight is WOW.

Honestly the only people more (or as) happy than the Sanders supporters in Maryland are the Trump Supporters in Maryland. I am betting they see this as a big win (that is my guess tonight). This is the match up many on that side of the isle want…maybe even the one Trump wants based on some of his recent comments.

South Carolina and Super Tuesday can change it all…for all of the candidates….except my favorite on the Dem side of this election…Tulsi Gabbard does not seem to have much of a path any longer. She got a lot of attention this election cycle and it will be interesting to see what she does going forward. I hope she stays active in politics and national political affairs. This election looks over for her…but will be fun to see if she sticks around for a while.

Stay tuned…South Carolina and Super Tuesday may actually decide this thing. I will be watching closely.

Scott E

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