The 2020 Democratic Primary Presidential Polling in early August shows some interesting trends:
Biden continues to lead the pack in early August 2019. He has had the lead in every poll taken up to this point (per Real Clear Politics).
Support for Harris has fallen below 10%. In July Harris was regularly polling above 10% with even one poll having Harris as high as 20%…but support has clearly dropped a little in the early August polls.
I see the grouping of candidates as the following:
A group of candidates: (above 10%)
B group of candidates: (Above 3%)
C group of candidates: (1% or better)
Then there is everyone else polling on average below 1%.
There has been a recent poll in one of the early primary states (New Hampshire). Results of the Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll of likely N.H. Democratic primary voters:
The top 5 in this poll mirror the national polling (Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris and Buttigieg). The shocker in this poll might be the number by Gabbard (3.2%). It will be interesting to see if the next few polls has that number holding or dropping off for Gabbard. That undecided number is interesting and keeps hope alive for many of the candidates.
Upcoming debate dates include:
- September 12 and 13 in Houston, Texas
- October (TBA)
The rules to qualify for both autumn debates are the same: Candidates need to register 2 percent support in at least three polls and get at least 130,000 people to contribute to their campaign.
According to NBC News: “So far, only eight candidates appear to have done so: Former Vice President Joe Biden; New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker; Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana; California Sen. Kamala Harris; Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar; former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke; Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders; and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
A few others have enough donors, but still need another poll or two: Former Housing Secretary Julián Castro, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and entrepreneur Andrew Yang.”
If the next round of debates are limited to these 8 to 11 candidates…I would expect some shakeups in the other campaigns not attending the debates. It might be the beginning of the end for some of those campaigns.
Have a favorite candidate? Let me know in the comments.
Note – photo in article from Pixabay