I wanted to write a separate post breaking down the numbers from early voting in Howard County to see some history and to see the breakout by the various districts or parties.
Here are some history numbers for Howard County:
Early voting and election day voting:
- 2010 General: Early Votes: 14,902 | Election Day: 86,751
- 2014 General: Early Votes: 21,432 | Election Day: 80,516
- 2018 General: Early Votes: 47,132 | Election Day: ???
Total voter turnout percentages (early voting plus election day)
2010: 57.08% | 2014: 52.16% | 2018: TBD
Notes: A big spike in early voting for 2018 in Howard County…the question is will that also mean a big spike in total votes cast in 2018?
2018 top counties in early voting by % of eligible voters
- Talbot: 31.55%
- Queen Anne’s: 25.25%
- Kent: 22.71%
- Howard: 21.93%
- Harford: 19.95%
Notes: Howard made it into the top 4 in voter turnout % in the state of Maryland. We also finished 4th in the state back in 2014 in terms of turnout %.
2018 top counties in early votes by total votes cast:
- Montgomery: 113,315 (17.29%)
- Prince George’s: 102,604 (17.70%)
- Baltimore County: 101,828 (18.38%)
- Anne Arundel: 69,258 (17.95%)
- Baltimore City: 47,460 (12.20%)
- Howard: 47,132 (21.93%)
Notes: We were so close to finishing in the top 5 in the state…but the total votes cast numbers are still great. We also finished 6th in 2014 (trailing Baltimore City by about 4,500 votes).
Total votes cast in early voting for the state: 661,276 (16.72%)
Notes: The statewide numbers back in 2014 were 307,646 (8.31%).
2018 Howard County early voting and turnout percentages by party:
- Republican: 10,450 | 18.95% eligible party voters
- Democrat: 28,421 | 26.26% eligible party voters
- Green: 66 | 13.10% eligible party voters
- Libertarian: 139 | 11.01% eligible party voters
- Unaffiliated: 7,678 | 16.03% eligible party voters
- Other: 378 | 20.76% eligible party voters
Notes: Democrats cast more early votes than all other parties combined and had this highest voter turnout percentage. That has to feel good for their team…as long as all of those folks voted Dem.
Possible scenarios for the Howard County Executive race after early voting:
I wanted to look where the County Executive race between Kittleman and Ball may stand after early voting. I looked at some past polls and did the following breakdowns: The charts are by (Democrat | Republican| Unaffiliated) for Kittleman:
- (20 / 95 / 70) – Ball leads 25,562 to Kittleman 20,978
- (33 / 85 / 60) – Ball leads 23,680 to Kittleman 22,869
- (25 / 90 / 55) – Ball leads 25,816 to Kittleman 20,733
Notes: Now all of this may be wrong…but the thing that the numbers tell me is that Kittleman needs a decent Dem crossover vote in this election (I think we all knew that already). He may have a larger amount than the 33% I gave him in scenario 2 (or higher Rep and Ind numbers) and could actually be leading right now…or the large Dem turnout may be going heavily for Ball…we wont know until Tuesday night. I did not factor in the other numbers for Green, Libertarian and other in these numbers.
2018 early voting by Howard County Councilmanic District:
- District 1: 10,806 (24.98%)
- District 2: 8,427 (20.03%)
- District 3: 7,207 (17.92%)
- District 4: 10,411 (24.34%)
- District 5: 10,281 (22.09%)
Total early votes: 47,132 (21.93%)
Notes: District 1 and District 4 are good numbers. District 5 is just “above average”. District 2 is a little “below average” and District 3 is low. I think voter turnout in D2 and D3 are critical for Ball so those are the districts that may make or break this election for County Executive.
2018 early voting by Howard County Legislative Districts:
- 9A: 13,672 (19.82%)
- 9B: 8,540 (28.43%)
- 9 total: 22,212 (22.43%)
- 12: 16,890 (21.13%)
- 13: 16,436 (18.38%)
Notes: I don’t think anyone is surprised that turnout in 9B is the highest. It was in the primary and is the most intense legislative race in the county. So many negative mailers on both sides….so much outside money trying to buy this district. I expected the numbers for 12 to be a bit higher and it actually is in Howard County (24.09% vs Baltimore County at 17.14%) – those numbers are good for all Dems in District 12.
So much more I could breakdown this morning…but I figure that is enough for one post. You can view all of the numbers here: https://elections.maryland.gov/press_room/index.html
Two more days until election day. If you did not vote early…get out there on Tuesday. So many of these local races look like they could be close right now…so every vote does matter.