I wrote yesterday that another poll would be coming…and this one basically mirrors all of the other polls we have seen up to date….Governor Hogan appears to have a commanding lead in the race for Governor of Maryland in 2018 over Ben Jealous. Here is what was reported from the Baltimore Sun:
“With less than a month to go until Election Day, Republican Gov. Larry Hogan continues to hold a commanding lead as he seeks a second term in charge of Maryland’s state government.
In a survey conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from Oct. 1 to Saturday, Hogan was ahead of his Democratic rival, Ben Jealous, by 18 percentage points with 54 percent of voters surveyed backing Hogan and 36 percent supporting Jealous.”
“About 64 percent of those surveyed said they think Maryland is moving in the right direction, while 20 percent said the state is off track.
The poll found that Hogan leads among Republicans (91 percent to 6 percent), unaffiliated voters (52 percent to 25 percent), men (58 percent to 33 percent), women (49 percent to 38 percent) and white voters (65 percent to 26 percent).
Jealous leads among Democrats (55 percent to 35 percent) and black voters (70 percent to 21 percent).
Geographically, Hogan leads in 20 of the state’s 24 jurisdictions — with his support strongest in the rural parts of the state. Hogan led the swing jurisdictions of Baltimore County and Howard County by 37 points and 21 points, respectively.
Jealous leads in Prince George’s County (64 percent to 23 percent), Baltimore City (50 percent to 40 percent) and Charles County (44 percent to 39 percent).
The two men were tied in traditionally liberal Montgomery County.
The poll of 806 voters has a margin of error of 3.5 percent. The Gonzales poll was released a day after a survey by The Washington Post and University of Maryland found Hogan leading by 20 percentage points.”
There was also data about in the Attorney General of Maryland Race:
“Gonzales’ poll also found what he called “unusual winds … blowing against” incumbent Attorney General Brian Frosh.
Frosh, a Democrat, leads his Republican challenger Craig Wolf by 9 percentage points.
Frosh was favored by 43 percent of Maryland voters, with 34 percent backing Wolf and 23 percent undecided.
Read the full article here: http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-md-gonzales-poll-governor-ag-20181009-story.html
One of the more interesting aspects of the polling data was our area in Maryland and specifically the numbers here in Howard County (and the surrounding counties):
Those are some interesting numbers in Howard and Baltimore counties…and these numbers could play a role in the various State Senate, Delegate and local races.
Here are links to the other polls in this race I have blogged about:
- Gonzales: Hogan 52% / Jealous 36% – a 16 point gap
- Goucher: Hogan 54% / Jealous 32% – a 22 point gap
- Mason Dixon: Hogan 52% / Jealous 37% – a 15 point gap
- Washington Post: Hogan 58% / Jealous 38% – a 20 point gap
Here is a link to the Real Clear Politics page with links to polling data: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/md/maryland_governor_hogan_vs_jealous-6273.html
If I am on team Hogan – these numbers are fantastic and you are thrilled today..but Maryland is still a blue state and this team need to continue to campaign like they are down 20…don’t stop pushing forward.
If I am on team Jealous – these numbers don’t look good…but you are still in a blue state and these numbers should be used to energize your party and push the GOTV efforts. This race may come down to voter turnout.
Many of us read the polling heading into the last presidential race and learned polling is not always 100% accurate….and no team should stop or even slow down because of what the polls say the numbers are at any given time.
Early voting starts in 15 days. Are you ready to vote?