I have ben saying for a little while now that the Maryland State Senate race in District 12 might be an interesting one to watch…and some new information was reported yesterday by Maryland Matters that makes this even more interesting:
A recent poll obtained by Maryland Matters showed businessman Joe Hooe, the Republican, leading Del. Clarence K. Lam (D) in the race for the open 12th District seat, in Howard and Baltimore counties.
You can read the full article here: https://www.marylandmatters.org/single-post/2018/10/08/GOP-Poll-Suggests-Another-State-Senate-District-Is-in-Play
A few thoughts I had after reading this…
- It is a poll from a GOP marketing firm…so that could be a factor in the numbers.
- The statement “Political professionals often consider single-day polls less reliable than polls taken over a period of a few days.” is probably true in most polls…but one in a local race like this may be more accurate as the number swings would not be as great as in other races.
- The “the Oct. 1 poll was a robocall made exclusively to land lines” has to be concerning. Maybe there are a great number of landlines in D12…but seems like an odd approach to polling (to me).
I recently wrote about recent Facebook outreach in which Joe Hooe had better numbers over the past week and the August campaign finance numbers showed positive numbers for Joe Hooe in terms of funds raised.
I wrote a numbers breakdown article back in July in which I guessed that this race “Leaned” towards Clarence Lam…but I also noted in that article some factors that could play a role in this race (unity being a big one…and I have not seem much online about the current State Senator or Lam’s primary opponent doing much to help in this race)…and around 2,400 votes separated these two candidates back in the 2014 delegate race…so don’t overlook this race folks.
This will be one of those districts I will be watching to see the voter turnout during early voting (only 16 more days until it starts).