So I wrote about polling between Hogan and Jealous from a report back in August that shows Governor Hogan with a 16 point advantage…and now the latest Goucher Polling shows Hogan with a 22 point advantage. Here is information from the email I received:
Results Embargoed Until Wednesday, September 19, 2018, at 12:01 a.m.
Press Contact Information
Director, Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center
Associate Vice President for Marketing and Communications
HOGAN, CARDIN, AND FROSH LEAD; ECONOMY MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE FOR VOTERS IN GOVERNOR’S RACE
BALTIMORE—The Goucher Poll asked Maryland likely voters for their opinions regarding candidates for Maryland governor, attorney general, and U.S. Senate.
If the general election were held today, 54 percent of Maryland likely voters say they will vote for Republican candidate Larry Hogan and 32 percent for Democratic candidate Ben Jealous. One percent say they will vote for Green Party candidate Ian Schlakman and another one percent say they will vote for Libertarian candidate Shawn Quinn. Nine percent are currently undecided.
Seventy-three percent of those who decided on a candidate say they are set on their candidate. About a quarter say they could change their mind.
Economy/jobs (25 percent), education (13 percent), racial/social justice (13 percent), President Trump/national political concerns (13 percent), and health care (11 percent) were identified as the most important issues in determining a vote for governor among likely voters.
Voters were asked whether they had more confidence in Larry Hogan or Ben Jealous to handle education, economic development and job creation, and health care.
66 percent had more confidence in Larry Hogan to handle economic development and job creation and 23 percent had more confidence in Ben Jealous.
51 percent had more confidence in Larry Hogan to handle education and 36 percent had more confidence in Ben Jealous.
51 percent had more confidence in Larry Hogan to handle health care and 35 percent had more confidence in Ben Jealous.
The majority of likely voters—60 percent—say that their opinions toward President Donald Trump will have no or only a little effect on their choice for governor. Thirty-nine percent say that their opinion toward the president will have some or a lot of effect.
Voters were also asked whether they would be more or less likely to vote for a candidate if they had an endorsement from Hogan or Jealous.
38 percent would be more likely to vote for a candidate if they had Hogan’s endorsement, 25 percent would be less likely, and 30 percent say Hogan’s endorsement would make no difference.
26 percent would be more likely to vote for a candidate if they had Jealous’s endorsement, 35 percent would be less likely, and 30 percent say Jealous’s endorsement would make no difference.
“Ben Jealous has faced a months-long barrage of negative ads and has a substantial disadvantage in campaign fundraising—and it’s prevented him from defining his candidacy to the public and making gains on his opponent,” said Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center at Goucher College. “Hogan’s electoral strength continues to be grounded in political moderation and the confidence the public has in him to handle economic issues. We have less than two months to see whether Hogan can maintain his bipartisan voting coalition or if Jealous can turnout enough progressives to make up the difference.”
Maryland Attorney General and U.S. Senate
Incumbents Sen. Ben Cardin and Maryland Attorney General Brian Frosh are both up significantly on their challengers.
When asked about the senatorial election, 56 percent of Maryland likely voters say they will vote for Democratic candidate Ben Cardin and 17 percent for Republican candidate Tony Campbell. Eight percent say they will vote for Independent candidate Neal Simon and 1 percent for Libertarian candidate Arvin Vohra. Fourteen percent are currently undecided.
In the race for Maryland Attorney General, 58 percent of Maryland likely voters say they will vote for Democratic candidate Brian Frosh and 26 percent for Republican candidate Craig Wolf. Twelve percent are currently undecided.
“Ben Cardin and Brian Frosh are both in a strong position to easily win their reelection bids in November,” said Mileah Kromer. “They both earn strong support from their Democratic base, as well as a solid percent of independent voters.”
Download the complete results, including methodology and question design. To view archived polls, please visit www.goucher.edu/poll.
About the Goucher Poll
The Goucher Poll is conducted under the auspices of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center at Goucher College. Directed by Dr. Mileah Kromer, the Goucher Poll conducts surveys on public policy, economic, and social issues in Maryland.
Goucher College supports the Goucher Poll as part of its mission to instill in its students a sense of community where discourse is valued and practiced. The Goucher Poll is fully funded by the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center endowment and does not take additional funding from outside sources. The Goucher Poll seeks to improve public discourse in Maryland by providing neutral, unbiased, and independent information on citizen perceptions and opinions. The data collected by the Goucher Poll are used to support faculty and student research.
The Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center is a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organizations and the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative.
Some of the specifics from the polling include:
So a 22 point advantage…and 73% of those polled do not have plans to change their mind. That is pretty significant…but lets look at some additional details about that data…
I want to focus on questions 3 and 4 for this article…and that shows Ben Jealous has a 10 point advantage with Democrats in this poll…which is good for him and his team…but needs a historic turnout to overcome the Independent and Republican numbers noted in the poll with only a 10 point advantage with his own party. It is also interesting that Independents are more likely to change their minds…not surprising…but interesting.
There is a lot of other good information in the poll…so be sure to go check it out here: https://gallery.mailchimp.com/2a4aefccb064b559262c97fb9/files/1607ee72-1da7-4a40-8aff-963acac922d6/Goucher_Poll_Sept_2018_Part_2.pdf