The Goucher Poll was released late last night / early this morning…and if you are a fan of Governor Hogan…you will like some of the results. Here is the text in the email blast from Goucher Poll:
Results Embargoed Until Tuesday, September 18, at 12:01 a.m.
Press Contact Information
Director, Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center
Associate Vice President for Marketing and Communications
MARYLANDERS SUPPORT A $15 MINIMUM WAGE AND LEGALIZATION OF RECREATIONAL MARIJUANA, VIEW STATE TAXES AS TOO HIGH
BALTIMORE—The Goucher Poll asked Maryland residents about their opinions toward the direction of the state, taxes, personal financial situations, health care, taxes, Gov. Larry Hogan, President Donald Trump, minimum wage, and the legalization of recreational marijuana. The Goucher Poll surveyed 831 Maryland adults from September 11-16 and has a margin of error of +/-3.4 percent.
Direction of the State, Taxes, Personal Financial Situation, and the Minimum Wage
Last September, 55 percent said Maryland was heading in the right direction and 31 percent said Maryland is off on the wrong track—the lowest point during Gov. Hogan’s tenure in office. That number rebounded in February, but has since fallen back. Fifty-four percent say Maryland is heading in the right direction and 30 percent say Maryland is off on the wrong track.
Support for increasing the statewide minimum wage to $15 dollars per hour has risen slightly among Marylanders since last spring. Seventy-one percent of Marylanders support raising the statewide minimum wage to $15 dollars per hour, 25 percent oppose it. By comparison, in February 2018, 66 percent supported increasing the minimum wage in Maryland to $15 per hour.
The majority of Marylanders—56 percent—consider the overall amount of state taxes they have to pay as “too high,” while 41 percent say the amount of state taxes they have to pay is “about right.” Only 2 percent think they pay “too little” in state taxes.
Residents were also asked what groups of people they think the Maryland tax system favors:
48 percent say it favors the wealthy
13 percent say it treats everyone equally
9 percent say it favors the poor
8 percent say it favors the middle class
Marylanders are divided in their trust in the state government to spend their tax dollars wisely. Fifty-five percent have “no” or “a little” trust, while 42 percent have “some” or “a lot” of trust.
Attitudes toward personal financial situations were also measured. A majority of residents—51 percent—expect their current financial situation to get better a year from now. Thirty-six percent expect it to stay about the same and 10 percent expect it to get worse. Looking back, 32 percent say their financial situation is “better” than it was a year ago, 53 percent say it’s “about the same,” and 14 percent say it’s “worse.”
“It’s clear why taxes are a persistent concern for voters—Marylanders think they pay too much in taxes, that the tax system favors the rich, and don’t trust the state government to spend their money wisely,” said Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center. “But misgivings toward taxes aside, residents hold a positive outlook for their personal financial situations.”
Medicare for All and the Affordable Care Act
Marylanders express similarly favorable opinions toward the Affordable Care Act—commonly known as Obamacare—and Medicare for All, a single payer health care system.
60 percent hold a favorable opinion of the Affordable Care Act/Obamacare and 33 percent hold an unfavorable opinion of it.
54 percent hold a favorable opinion of Medicare for All/single-payer health system and 33 percent hold an unfavorable opinion of it.
Respondents were then asked whether they wanted Maryland elected officials to focus on “improving the way the Affordable Care Act is working for Maryland” or “adopting a statewide, single payer Medicare for All plan for Maryland.”
46 percent prefer that Maryland elected officials focus on improving the Affordable Care Act.
29 percent prefer that Maryland elected officials focus on adopting a statewide, single payer Medicare for All plan.
“Support for a state-based Medicare for All plan distinguished Ben Jealous as a candidate for governor from the rest of field during the Democratic primary,” said Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center at Goucher College. “However, opinions toward adopting a single-payer health care system are nuanced. Marylanders do view Medicare for All favorably, but a majority still prefers that elected officials focus on improving the way the Affordable Care Act is working for Maryland.”
Gov. Larry Hogan and President Donald Trump
Marylanders have consistently given Larry Hogan good marks during his tenure as governor. Sixty-four percent of Marylanders approve of the job Larry Hogan is doing as governor, 17 percent disapprove, and 17 percent say they don’t know.
Marylanders continue to give the job performance of President Donald Trump low marks. Twenty-three percent of Marylanders approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president and 71 percent disapprove.
Maryland residents were asked additional questions about Gov. Hogan, including his ideological leanings and his distance from President Trump; attitudes are consistent with the findings of the April 2018 Goucher Poll.
48 percent of Marylanders think that Gov. Hogan is a moderate, 27 percent see him as a conservative, and 10 percent view the governor as a progressive. Fourteen percent say they don’t know.
45 percent of Maryland residents believe that Gov. Hogan has distanced himself about the right amount from President Trump. Twenty-four percent of respondents believe Gov. Hogan has distanced himself too little from President Trump, and 8 percent think he has distanced himself too much from President Trump. Twenty-one percent say they don’t know.
Legalization of Recreational Marijuana
The majority of Marylanders—62 percent—support the legalization of marijuana for recreational use, and 33 percent oppose legalization.
Download the complete results, including methodology and question design. To view archived polls, please visit www.goucher.edu/poll.
The second part of this poll will be released on Wednesday, September 19, at 12:01 a.m.
About the Goucher Poll
The Goucher Poll is conducted under the auspices of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center at Goucher College. Directed by Dr. Mileah Kromer, the Goucher Poll conducts surveys on public policy, economic, and social issues in Maryland.
Goucher College supports the Goucher Poll as part of its mission to instill in its students a sense of community where discourse is valued and practiced. The Goucher Poll is fully funded by the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center endowment and does not take additional funding from outside sources. The Goucher Poll seeks to improve public discourse in Maryland by providing neutral, unbiased, and independent information on citizen perceptions and opinions. The data collected by the Goucher Poll are used to support faculty and student research.
The Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center is a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organizations and the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative.
Here are some of the interesting numbers for me: “The following questions were asked to the full sample of 831 Maryland adults…Results are in percent and may not add up exactly to 100 due to weighting and rounding”
Governor Hogan’s approval numbers (64%) are down slightly from the April polling (69%) but remains slightly higher than the polling done in Feb 18 (61%) and Sept 17 (62%). So basically over four polls in the past year you get an approval range from 61% – 69%.
The numbers are even higher for registered voters…and there is some interesting stuff when you look at party, gender, age and race breakdowns of registered voters:
Governor Hogan’s approval numbers are at 67% approval of registered voters (that is a 3% increase vs all adults surveyed). The 89% Republican approval is no big shock…but look at the Independent numbers…73% approval…and even the Democrat numbers….56% approval…in an election year, that is a pretty big number.
Governor Hogan has a similar approval number when you look at the gender breakdown (66% of males and 62% of females approve for his job performance). The age gap is interesting with Hogan having the highest approval numbers from the 55+ demographic. He is only at 49% with the 18 – 34 demographic. If more young people voted this would be a concern…but data has shown that this demographic does not vote in significant numbers compared to other age demographics. The race demographics are also interesting…only a 47% approval number from black registered voters…but 73% from white registered voters and 55% approval from “other” registered voters.
Even when you look at the data by region…the numbers look good for the Governor:
His lowest numbers are in the Prince George’s and Montgomery County region…but even that is at 56% approval and only a 16% disapproval.
I think the thing that stands out to me the most are how low the disapproval numbers are across all the tables above in the charts. No one demographic hates the job the governor is doing…and that may be significant when voters go to the polls in November.
Be sure to give the entire report a read…there is a lot of other good data on other questions. Check it out here: https://gallery.mailchimp.com/2a4aefccb064b559262c97fb9/files/0abd13ba-3892-4335-91c0-99a0d4fde0d9/SEPT18_Tuesday_RELEASE_FINAL.02.pdf