This is part eleven in this series of current and past election data and early predictions in local races…this article I will look at Maryland State Delegate in District 9A. You can see the results from the 2018 primary here. Below are some numbers from the past couple elections for this office:
Why did I only provide 2014 and 2018 data? The redistricting of 2012 significantly changed this district. Prior to 2012, this district included the current district 9B, did not include lower Carroll County and did not include North Laurel and the southwestern part of the county along the Montgomery County line. The map at the top of the page is the current map of District 9A…here is the map prior to 2012:
I believe the new makeup of District 9A makes it more Red by removing the part of Howard County now known as 9B (more on that in the 9B numbers and prediction). Here are the general elections numbers for District 9A back in 2010:
If you compare the 2010 numbers with the 2014 numbers…you can see the big shift in Rep votes vs Dem votes for candidates…changing this district from a somewhat red district to a very red district.
Some key items I will be watching that will play into the general election:
- Money – watching campaign finance reports and seeing who is getting the most money…and what they spend it on. Miller is the big money person in this race right now…will it stay that way?
- What will the Dems do to make a splash in this race?
- Allan Kittleman is running for County Executive…you have to believe this only helps Trent Kittleman in this race. Name recognition is key in an election and the Kittleman name is golden in Howard County politics right now.
Prediction: (I am going to note Strong, Lean or Even based on my best guess at this point in the race).
I am calling this Strong Warren Miller and Trent Kittleman right now. The redistricting in 2012 changed the dynamic a bit in this race and not sure a Dem can break through easily.
I will be breaking down additional numbers in other races in the following days / weeks. So stay tuned and look for more data soon. I have much to process and report out on for a while…and more early predictions to provide.