This is my tenth article in this series on primary numbers breakdown…I decided to take a minute or two and look at the Maryland State Delegate in District 12 race. You can see the results from the 2018 primary here. Below are some numbers from the past couple elections for this office:
Things about these numbers that caught my attention:
- The total votes cast in 2018 are up (that is generally how most of these reviews will go).
- Dems dominate primary voting…but they have had back to back competitive primary elections while the Reps have not had more than three candidates seek this office in each of the past two election cycles.
- The numbers show that Howard County is the key to being elected in district 12. While Baltimore County should not be ignored..it is all about winning in Howard County to be elected in the primary and general.
Why did I only provide 2014 and 2018 data? The redistricting of 2012 significantly changed this district. Prior to 2012, this district was broken out into districts 12A (Baltimore and Howard County) and 12B (Howard County). The redistricting basically took the two districts and merged them together:
Back in 2010 the general election race in 12A was very close:
While in 12B…it was not close at all in 2010:
Merging these two districts in 2012 made this a VERY blue district (as you can see that from the 2014 and 2018 numbers above).
Some key items I will be watching that will play into the general election:
- Money – watching campaign finance reports and seeing who is getting the most money…and what they spend it on. Team 12 (Ebersole and Hill) and Feldmark holds a significant advantage right now in money…will it stay that way?
- Team 12 Slate – All of team 12 (Lam, Ebersole and Hill) contributes to the slate account and that can not be overlooked in regards to money in this race.
- Will Feldmark become part of the Team 12 Slate? If so, when will they change their logos, signs, t-shirts and palm cards?
- Will GOP candidates like Cockey and Russell get any better at submitting financial statements on time (or at all) going forward?
Prediction: (I am going to note Strong, Lean or Even based on my best guess at this point in the race).
I am calling this Strong Eric Ebersole, Terri Hill and Jessica Feldmark right now. This district was redrawn in 2012 to be blue and I don’t see that changing in 2018.
I will be breaking down additional numbers in other races in the following days / weeks. So stay tuned and look for more data soon. I have much to process and report out on for a while…and more early predictions to provide.