This is my eighth article in this series on primary numbers breakdown…this time I wanted to look at numbers in the Maryland State Senate in District 12 race. You can see the results from the 2018 primary here. Below are some numbers from the past few elections for this office:
These numbers represent total votes cast for candidates running for Maryland State Senate in District 12 in 2010, 2014 and the primary numbers from 2018. The breakdown in the chart is by the candidate(s) running for office (Rep is the Republican candidate(s), Dem is the Democratic candidate(s))…not party specific votes.
In 2010, candidates included Rick Martel (R), Ed Kasemeyer (D). https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2010/index.html
In 2014, candidates included Jessie Pippy (R), Ed Kasemeyer (D). https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2014/index.html
In 2018, candidates included Joe Hooe (R), Clarence Lam (R) and Mary Kay Sigaty (D).
Things about these numbers that caught my attention:
- The total votes cast in 2018 are up (that is generally how most of these reviews will go).
- Dems dominate primary voting…but the numbers get much more interesting in the general election.
- The contested primary on the Dem side in 2018 really brought out voters.
Some key items I will be watching that will play into the general election:
- Money – watching campaign finance reports and seeing who is getting the most money…and what they spend it on. Lam holds a significant advantage right now in money…will it stay that way?
- Team 12 Slate – All of team 12 (Lam, Ebersole and Hill) contributes to the slate account and that can not be overlooked in regards to money in this race.
- Unity – The Dem primary in this race was pretty heated…Lam won a significant victory…but Sigaty got a lot of big endorsements (include one from the current State Senator in that seat) and some others of note. Will the two sides come together in order to keep this seat or might the division lower turnout in the general?
Prediction: (I am going to note Strong, Lean or Even based on my best guess at this point in the race).
I am calling this Lean Clarence Lam right now. My gut tells me that flipping this seat from blue to red will be difficult…but there are some other items I looked at in making this prediction:
- Unity – see above
- The Delegate race in 2014 – Hooe ran in that race and received the most votes of any Rep candidate in the general…Lam also ran in that race (and was elected) but received the least votes of all Dem candidates in the general…and the difference between these two candidates in 2014 was around 2,400 votes in the general. Turnout numbers in Baltimore County and Howard County will probably decide this race in the end.
I will be breaking down additional numbers in other races in the following days / weeks. So stay tuned and look for more data soon. I have much to process and report out on for a while…and more early predictions to provide.