This is my seventh article in this series on primary numbers breakdown…this time I wanted to look at numbers in the Maryland State Senate in District 9 race. You can see the results from the 2018 primary here. Below are some numbers from the past few elections for this office:

These numbers represent total votes cast for candidates running for Maryland State Senate in District 9 in 2010, 2014 and the primary numbers from 2018. The breakdown in the chart is by the candidate(s) running for office (Rep is the Republican candidate(s), Dem is the Democratic candidate(s))…not party specific votes.
In 2010, candidates included Allan Kittleman (R)Mary Jim Adams (D).
In 2014, candidates included Gail Bates (R), Ryan Frederic (D) and Dan Medinger (D).
In 2018, candidates included Gail Bates (R), Reid Novotny (R) and Katie Hester (D).
Things about these numbers that caught my attention:

  • The total votes cast in 2018 are up (that is generally how most of these reviews will go).
  • Dems have cast more primary votes than Reps in 2014 and 2018.
  • The primary numbers and the numbers in the general are significantly different.

Some key items I will be watching that will play into the general election:

  • Money – watching campaign finance reports and seeing who is getting the most money…and what they spend it on. Bates holds a significant advantage right now in money…will it stay that way?
  • Unity – The Rep primary in this race was a little heated at times….and the final vote count ended up much closer than many expected. Will the two sides come together in order to keep this seat? Should the Bates team be concerned with the primary results in regards to the general and will that make their team step up campaigning significantly in the general?
  • This is Allan Kittleman’s old seat…and I expect him running for County Executive again will help bring out voters in this district.

Prediction: (I am going to note Strong, Lean or Even based on my best guess at this point in the race).
I am calling this Strong Gail Bates right now. History and the numbers says that this is a very red district and I am not sure that will change in 2018. I almost went lean Bates in this race because of the tough primary and the total votes cast in the 2018 primary…but the numbers in the past two general elections changed my mind in the end. Hester will need to make some big moves in order to challenge for this seat in 2018.
I will be breaking down additional numbers in other races in the following days / weeks. So stay tuned and look for more data soon. I have much to process and report out on for a while…and more early predictions to provide.
Scott E