This is my fifth article in this series on primary numbers breakdown…this time I wanted to look at numbers in the Howard County Council District 4 race. You can see the results from the 2018 primary here. Below are some numbers from the past few elections for this office:
These numbers represent total votes cast for candidates running for Howard County Council District 4 in 2010, 2014 and the primary numbers from 2018. The breakdown in the chart is by the candidate(s) running for office (Rep is the Republican candidate(s), Dem is the Democratic candidate(s))…not party specific votes.
In 2010, candidates included Tom D`Asto (R), Mary Kay Sigaty (D) and Alan Klein (D). https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2010/index.html
In 2014, candidates included Mary Kay Sigaty (D). This was the only candidate in the primary and general. https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2014/index.html
In 2018, candidates included Lisa Kim (R), Deb Jung (D), Ian Moller-Knudsen (D), and Janet Siddiqui (D).
Things about these numbers that caught my attention:
- The total votes cast in 2018 are up (that is generally how most of these reviews will go).
- 2018 Rep numbers (in terms of total votes cast in the primary) are down from 2010 (there was no Rep candidate in 2014).
- The numbers in 2014 dropped off significantly…but with no primary or general opponent that year…it should not be a big surprise.
Some key items I will be watching that will play into the general election:
- Money – watching campaign finance reports and seeing who is getting the most money…and what they spend it on. Jung holds a significant advantage right now in money…will it stay that way?
- Unity – The Dem primary in this race pretty heated…not so much between the candidates but from mailers from the HCEA, posts from bloggers and comments on social media…and mostly in support of one candidates and against another candidate…so will this play a factor in this race? My gut says no but it might and something that should not be overlooked between now and November.
- What role will Mary Kay Sigaty play in this race? Sigaty had a tough primary for State Senate in District 12 and I will be interested to see what (if any) involvement she will have in this race in support of Jung.
Prediction: (I am going to note Strong, Lean or Even based on my best guess at this point in the race).
I am calling this Strong Deb Jung right now. History says that this is a very blue district and I am not sure that will change in 2018. Kim has an uphill battle on her hands and will need to do something big to compete in this race come November.
I will be breaking down additional numbers in other races in the following days / weeks. So stay tuned and look for more data soon. I have much to process and report out on for a while…and more early predictions to provide.