In part three of my series on numbers breakdown…I wanted to look at numbers in the Howard County Council District 2 race. I have not had much to write about this race because there was no primary for either candidate. You can see the results from the 2018 primary here. Below are some numbers from the past few elections for this office:
These numbers represent total votes cast for candidates running for Howard County Council District 2 in 2010, 2014 and the primary numbers from 2018. The breakdown in the chart is by the candidate(s) running for office (Rep is the Republican candidate, Dem is the Democratic candidate)…not party specific votes.
In 2010, candidates included Anthony Jordan (R), Reg Avery (R) and Calvin Ball (D). https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2010/index.html
In 2014, candidates included Ralph Colavita (R), Reg Avery (R) and Calvin Ball (D). https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2014/index.html
In 2018, candidates included John Liao (R) and Opel Jones (D).
Things about these numbers that caught my attention:
- The total votes cast in 2018 are up (that is generally how most of these reviews will go).
- Jones got a higher number of primary votes than Ball did in the past two elections.
- 2018 had the lowest turnout for GOP primary voters over the past three elections.
Some key items I will be watching that will play into the general election:
- With Ball running for County Executive…we should see decent turnout in this district…that is good for Jones.
- Money – watching campaign finance reports and seeing who is getting the most money…and what they spend it on. Liao holds a slight advantage right now in money…but it is close.
- Will the GOP make a play in this district or will they focus on other districts that are more winnable?
Prediction: (I am going to note Strong, Lean or Even based on my best guess at this point in the race).
I am calling this Strong Opel Jones right now. History says that this is a very blue district and I am not sure that will change in 2018. Calvin Ball running for County Executive will bring folks out in this district and Opel Jones will benefit from that fact.
I will be breaking down additional numbers in other races in the following days / weeks. So stay tuned and look for more data soon. I have much to process and report out on for a while…and more early predictions to provide.