In part two of my series on numbers breakdown…I wanted to look at numbers in the Howard County Council District 5 race. You can see the results from the 2018 primary here. Below are some numbers from the past few elections for this office:
These numbers represent total votes cast for candidates running for Howard County Council District 5 in 2010, 2014 and the primary numbers from 2018. The breakdown in the chart is by the candidate(s) running for office (Rep is the Republican candidate, Dem is the Democratic candidate)…not party specific votes.
In 2010, candidates included Greg Fox (R) and Zaneb Beams (D). These were the only two candidates in the primary and general.
in 2014, candidates included Greg Fox (R) and Alan Schneider (D). These were the only two candidates in the primary and general.
in 2018, candidates included David Yungmann (R), Jim Walsh (R) and China Williams (D).
Things about these numbers that caught my attention:
- The total votes cast in 2018 are up (that is generally how most of these reviews will go).
- Dems out voted Reps in the primary for the first time in the past three elections…that is significant in the 2018 race.
- General numbers are significantly different than primary numbers…will that continue in 2018?
Some key items I will be watching that will play into the general election:
- The current County Executive could be a factor in the race. If he publicly backs Yungmann and hold events in D5…this will be good for Yungmann and the boost he needs in order for the party to keep this seat.
- Money – watching campaign finance reports and seeing who is getting the most money…and what they spend it on. Both candidates have done a good job at raising funds…now who can continue that trend?
- Unity – The GOP side of this race got pretty heated with some graphics and videos floating around on social media. Can these two candidates come together (along with members of the Central Committee) to unify the party in D5 or will the split continue and drive down turnout in 2018?
- Will Williams use the information posted on social media in order to make those issues to voters in this election? She has been handed some interesting information…but will she (or how will she) use it between now and November.
- What role will Calvin Ball play in this race? History says that this is a red district and spending a lot of time there may not be in his best interest…unless he feels like it could flip and he could pick up a big block of votes in his race from D5…which would help Williams and himself in 2018.
- Independent voters – which candidate will get these voters on their side between now and November.
Prediction: (I am going to note Strong, Lean or Even based on my best guess at this point in the race).
I am calling this one Lean Yungmann right now. History says that this race will probably go red…but if there was ever an election this race could flip to blue it is in 2018…which is why I have listed this as Lean and not Strong. The numbers indicate that this is a local race to watch in 2018.
I will be breaking down additional numbers in other races in the following days / weeks. So stay tuned and look for more data soon. I have much to process and report out on for a while…and more early predictions to provide.