A lot of people, bloggers and reporters will be writing about the latest polling numbers from the Washington Post. I looked over the numbers and noticed a few things…here are some screenshots and comments I have on the numbers:
Comments: This is the summary view…and I have to admit I did not expect Jealous to be leading at this point. Jealous and Baker are without question the leaders…and in a pretty significant way at this point. I was a little surprised at how high the Ervin number is…maybe I should not be…she is on TV all of the time right now attempting to get her name on the ballot (I hope she does but it very much appears that it will not happen)…but the issue is keeping her name constantly on local news.
We will now look at some of the more specific breakdowns…
Comments: Baker holds a very slight edge with male voters over Jealous. They both hold double digit leads over all other candidates.
Comments: Jealous holds a decent advantage with female voters (10 points higher than Baker). I was a little surprised that neither Ervin nor Vignarajah reached the 10% mark here.
Baltimore City & County:
Comments: No question that Baltimore City and County are one of the critical areas in this primary. Jealous dominates this area over the other candidates (in this poll). I was a little surprised that Madaleno is the 2nd highest and that Baker’s numbers are so low.
Montgomery & PG Counties:
Comments: This is another significant region for this primary…and Baker is dominating here (20 points over Jealous). No other candidate hit 10%…expected higher numbers from Madaleno and Ervin in this area.
Rest of the state:
Comments: While Baltimore City & County, PG County and MoCo are significant…this is a race in the entire state…and Jealous is leading outside of the areas listed above. Ervin is second (in this poll) with Baker in third.
There are other numbers to breakdown…feel free to go give them a look: https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2018/06/05/National-Politics/Polling/question_20387.xml?uuid=Vo7sOGioEeijNcRQPQQerw
Voter turnout will be the key…here are numbers by county and by candidate from the 2014 primary for Governor (just to give you an idea of total number of votes by county):
What does all of this mean to me:
There is still that big undecided part of the poll (29% or more) and that may be the key to victory for any of these candidates..plus voter turnout will be key to win this primary. It is looking more and more like a two person race….but do not underestimate any candidate with that big an undecided number right now.
Jason Booms wrote up an interesting article with his thoughts…read it here.