The latest Goucher Poll was released last night…and Democrat candidates running for Governor can not be thrilled with the numbers. Here are a few items that caught my eye:
Who was surveyed:
Governor Hogan continues to earn high marks from Marylanders. Sixty-nine percent of Marylanders approve of the job Hogan is doing as governor and 21 percent disapprove. President Donald Trump is significantly less popular with Marylanders; 25 percent approve of the job he is doing and 70 percent disapprove.
President Trump is universally disliked in Maryland…but the Governor’s approval number remain VERY high…in an election year that is important.
Maryland residents were asked additional questions about Governor Hogan including his ideological leanings and his distance from President Trump.
51 percent of Marylanders think that Governor Hogan is a moderate, while 26 percent see him as a conservative and 9 percent view the Governor as a liberal.
47 percent of Maryland residents believe that Governor Hogan has distanced himself “about the right amount” from President Trump. Twenty-seven percent of respondents believe Governor Hogan has distanced himself “too little” from President Trump and 9 percent think he has distanced himself “too much.”
Maryland likely voters were also asked how much influence their views toward President Trump will have on their vote for governor. Thirty-six percent said that their views toward President Trump will influence their vote for governor “a lot” or “some” and 62 percent said their views toward the president will have “no” or “only a little” influence on their vote.
I think these numbers show that trying to tie Governor Hogan to President Trump will not be a winning strategy for his opponents. They have to show why they would be better than he will and not just pitch the Trump – Hogan lines that many have been trying over the past many months….that alone will not get you a win this election year.
Marylanders who indicated that they were registered to vote, interested in the 2018 election, and likely to vote in the upcoming elections in November were asked whether they would vote for “Republican Larry Hogan” or vote for each one the Democratic candidates:
Larry Hogan (44%) / Rushern Baker (31%) / Undecided (22%)
Larry Hogan (44%) / Ben Jealous (31%) / Undecided (22%)
Larry Hogan (45%) / Kevin Kamenetz (28%) / Undecided (23%)
Larry Hogan (45%) / Rich Madaleno (27%) / Undecided (26%)
Larry Hogan (46%) / Alec Ross (26%) / Undecided (26%)
Larry Hogan (47%) / Jim Shea (27%) / Undecided (25%)
Larry Hogan (45%) / Krish Vignarajah (25%) / Undecided (27%)
I believe many think that Baker, Kamenetz and Jealous are the three front runners…but the numbers above are very interesting. Head to head with the Governor, all of the candidates are close….and all trail by double digits at this point.
You can view the full Goucher Poll report here: https://gallery.mailchimp.com/2a4aefccb064b559262c97fb9/files/17f317b2-8b1b-48b6-a08b-f8496a8fb6e1/APRIL2018_TUESDAY_Release_FINAL.01.pdf
It is a long way to November and a lot of things can happen to change these numbers. Once we have one candidate on the Dem side of the ticket I would expect these numbers to close significantly…the big question becomes which Dem candidate will win the Primary?