Goucher Poll Data: Larry Hogan remains popular in Maryland across party lines.

The first part of the latest Goucher Poll came out at midnight…here is a summary via the email that was sent out:

Hogan Remains Popular; Perceptions of the Maryland Economy Are Positive

Results Embargoed Until Tuesday, February 20, 2018 at 12:01am

Baltimore— The Goucher Poll asked Maryland residents about their opinions toward Governor Larry Hogan, the direction of the state, President Donald Trump and Congress. The Goucher Poll surveyed 800 Maryland adults from February 12-17 and has a margin of error of +/-3.5 percent.

Perceptions of Governor Larry Hogan and the 2018 Gubernatorial Election

Governor Hogan’s standing with Marylanders remains unchanged since the September 2017 Goucher Poll. Sixty-one percent of Marylanders approve of the job Larry Hogan is doing as governor, 18 percent disapprove, and 19 percent say they don’t know.

Maryland residents were asked additional questions about Governor Larry Hogan including his ideological leanings and his distance from President Trump.
Forty-six percent of Marylanders think that Governor Hogan is a moderate, while 29 percent see him as a conservative, 7 percent view the Governor as a liberal. 17 percent say they don’t know.
Forty-seven percent of Maryland residents believe that Governor Hogan has distanced himself about the right amount from President Trump. Twenty-two percent of respondents believe Governor Hogan has distanced himself too little from President Trump and 10 percent think he has distanced himself too much from President Trump. Twenty percent say they don’t know.
Marylanders who indicated that they were interested in the 2018 election and registered to vote in the state were asked whether they would vote to reelect Governor Hogan or vote for a Democratic candidate.

Forty-seven percent of Marylanders say they are leaning toward or will definitely vote to reelect Governor Hogan and 43 percent say they are leaning toward or will definitely vote for a different candidate.

When asked about the single most important issue for determining their choice for governor, 28 percent of respondents say the economy and jobs, 24 percent say education, and 13 percent say health care. 11 percent cite racial and social justice issues as the most important factor, while eight percent cited taxes.

Maryland voters were divided on how much influence their views toward President Trump would have on their vote for governor. 38 percent say that their views toward President Trump would influence their vote for governor some or a lot and 60 percent say their views toward the president would have no or only a little influence on their vote.

“Governor Hogan’s reelection chances in blue Maryland are closely tied to the public perception that he is a moderate Republican who has distanced himself from Washington politics,” said Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center. “The specter of an unpopular president with shared party affiliation still looms as a potential political problem for Mr. Hogan as about a third of Maryland voters say their views toward the president will influence their vote for governor.”

Views toward the State’s Most Important Issue, the Direction of the State, and the Current Economic Situation

Twenty-two percent of Marylanders identify economic issues—including jobs, taxes, economic growth, and the budget—and 19 percent identify education as the most important issues facing Maryland today. Twelve percent consider crime and criminal justice to be the most important issue.

In September 2017, 55 percent say Maryland is heading in the right direction and 31 percent say Maryland is off on the wrong track—the lowest point during Mr. Hogan’s tenure in office. That number has rebounded; 62 percent say Maryland is heading in the right direction and 29 percent say Maryland is off on the wrong track.

Attitudes toward Maryland’s economic situation—an important factor in determining the outcome of gubernatorial elections—remain positive; 60 percent currently hold a mostly positive view of the Maryland economy and 31 percent hold a mostly negative view.

Views toward the New Tax Plan, President Trump, Senators Cardin and Van Hollen, and Congress

Marylanders were asked whether they expected the recent changes to the federal tax code to increase, decrease, or have no effect on the amount of taxes they will pay over the next couple years. Twenty-six percent think their taxes will decrease, 44 percent think their taxes will increase, and 18 percent think the changes to the tax code will have no effect.

Twenty-seven percent of Marylanders approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President of the United States and 68 percent disapprove. In February 2017, President Trump’s approval rating in Maryland was 29 percent.

Congress continues to earn poor job approval ratings from Maryland residents. Only 11 percent approve of the job Congress is doing while 83 percent disapprove.

Respondents were also asked to rate the job their two US Senators are doing:
Senator Chris Van Hollen: 37 percent approve, 27 percent disapprove, 34 percent don’t know
Senator Ben Cardin: 44 percent approve, 30 percent disapprove, 24 percent don’t know
Mileah Kromer, the director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center, will be available for comment. She can be reached directly at mileah.kromer@goucher.edu.

Complete results, including methodology and question design, can be downloaded here.

To view archived polls and sign up to receive future results, visit http://www.goucher.edu/poll.

Click here to view the data that was released:  https://gallery.mailchimp.com/2a4aefccb064b559262c97fb9/files/67ea802e-f335-4eff-9a29-f2e7ff300d7a/SP18_Tuesday_RELEASE_FINAL.02.pdf

I highly recommend viewing the detailed data…and parts 2 and 3 will be released over the next couple of days…can’t wait to see that data.

It is going to be around 70 degrees today…so get out and about while you can today before the cold weather comes back to Maryland.

Scott E

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