One more day until the election. Some new polls came out yesterday but did not move the needle enough to change the map. As a reminder…here is the current outlook via Real Clear Politics:
(Clinton – 216 | Toss Up – 158 | Trump – 164)
Here is some interesting polling data that came out yesterday:
- Florida: Tie (Clinton 45, Trump 45, Johnson 4, Stein 2)
- Ohio: Trump +1
- Michigan: Clinton +5
- New Mexico: Clinton +5
- New York: Clinton +17
Other interesting polls that came out yesterday were the ones for US Senate in the Battleground states:
- Florida Senate – Rubio vs. Murphy: Rubio +3
- Ohio Senate – Portman vs. Strickland: Portman +13
- Ohio Senate – Portman vs. Strickland: Portman +21
What does that show: Michigan and New Mexico will both probably go to Clinton. That is not a surprise to most people. Although still shown as a toss up in the map above, I don’t expect Trump to win either of those states tomorrow. Ohio looks interesting, the strength of Portman will help Trump in the end and should help him squeak out a victory in that state. Florida is the BIG one tomorrow. It will be all about voter turnout. Trump has to win it to have any chance tomorrow. If Clinton wins Florida, the race is over and she wins.
I expect to see new polls out today and hopefully they will provide a clear picture for some of these states and the expected outcome tomorrow. If something good comes out, I will update in a new post later today.
I will be writing my prediction tomorrow morning. You will not want to miss it.
Past polling articles:
Here is a link to Real Clear Politics to track all of this data: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html