So I wrote earlier today that this race and the polling is still VERY fluid and there have been more changes since my post earlier today:

  • 11/4 – Michigan changes from Leans Clinton to Toss Up
  • 11/4 – Georgia changes from Leans Trump to Toss Up
  • 11/4 – Indiana changes from Leans Trump to Likely Trump

The new map looks like this (Clinton – 208 | Toss Up – 166 | Trump – 164)
Maryland Scramble appears not to be a fan of the RCP polling data listed on their website (READ HERE) and while I agree with him on some statements (not his final prediction of 323 to 215, but other stuff in the article), I personally like watching the data they report. I do not think Clinton will lose Michigan, Pennsylvania or Virginia and I also do not believe Trump will lose Georgia. Trump (I think) has a really good shot at winning Ohio and North Carolina. I still believe that this race comes down to New Hampshire, Florida and Nevada. If Trump takes Florida, New Hampshire and the others he needs to have (Iowa, Arizona, etc…) and it goes down to Nevada, this race will have become an episode of West Wing (Season 7 – episode 17 “Election Day Part II”). If you are not familiar with that…check it out on Netflix.
Four days in this election are plenty of time to see MANY more changes…stay tuned…I will try and keep up with them all.
Scott E


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